Why Covid-19 Deaths in New York Were Inevitable

Hint: the reason they were inevitable is the same reason they can’t happen again

Photo by Michael Discenza on Unsplash

Covid-19 seeded hundreds of thousands of infections in New York and more than a million infections nationwide before it caused its first deaths. To say we were caught sleeping would be a tremendous understatement. As of March 15, fewer than 3,000 people had tested positive for Covid-19 nationwide. Fewer than 200,000 had tested positive worldwide.

Figure 1 — Covid-19 Timeline

As a whole, the US totaled about 1.5 million Covid-19 infections as of the day of first death in each state.

Figure 2 — History of Covid-19 infections in New York. New York had approximately 500,000 Covid-19 infections as of the day of the first death from Covid-19. Charts for all 50 states + DC are available on my website.
Figure 3 — History of contagiousness in New York.

Why Didn’t Other States Experience the Problems New York Did?

Figure 4 — The estimated initial infections as of the day of first death in the 50 states + DC total about 1.5 million infections.
Figure 5 — History of Covid-19 infections in Washington state.
Figure 6— History of contagiousness in Washington state.

Why This Can’t Happen Again

My Background

More Details on the Covid-19 Information Website

Notes

Author of Code Complete and More Effective Agile, Contributor to CDC Covid19 Forecasting, CEO at Construx, Dog Walker, Motorcyclist, Cinephile, DIYer, Rotarian.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store