Expect Next Week’s Covid Death Tolls to be Sensationally Exaggerated

Covid data has been underreported every holiday so far. Thanksgiving week’s underreporting will make for sensational (and misleading) headlines next week.

The chart below shows the forecasts submitted to the CDC’s Ensemble model for the two week period ending today. The forecasts were tracking perfectly through Wednesday, then strongly diverged on Thursday through Saturday (11/26 to 11/28).